Pakistan 2026: Rising Heatwaves Under the Threat of a Super El Niño

Pakistan is experiencing an increasingly severe pattern of heatwaves that has begun earlier than the typical peak summer season, signaling heightened climatic stress across the region. Meteorological observations indicate that temperatures in southern and central regions, including Sindh, southern Punjab, and parts of Balochistan, are consistently 2°C to 4°C above normal, with heat-prone areas regularly approaching extreme thresholds during May and June. The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned that these months will likely remain the hottest period of the year, with localized heatwave conditions capable of pushing temperatures as high as 50°C or more in vulnerable districts.

     National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), through its National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC), issued a nationwide alert warning of an intense heatwave in several regions until May 5.

A key contributing factor to the severity of these heatwaves is the developing El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to emerge between May and July 2026 and may potentially intensify into a strong or “super” El Niño phase later in the year. Forecasts suggest that a stronger El Niño could suppress rainfall in the region, thereby intensifying heatwave duration and frequency while increasing the risk of drought-like conditions. Caritas Pakistan has been actively working against the impacts of heatwaves through its humanitarian response and community resilience programs across vulnerable regions of the country. In response to extreme weather conditions, the organization has supported at-risk populations by improving access to safe drinking water, distributing emergency relief supplies, and organizing awareness campaigns on heatwave safety and prevention measures.